Women’s Semifinal, Three Key Stats: 

• Madison Keys has won all ten deciding sets she has played in 2025. 

• Aryna Sabalenka and Keys have played three deciding sets, with the American winning two.

• Sabalenka has yet to drop a set thus far at Indian Wells, but Keys comes in riding a 16-match win streak. 

Madison Keys climbed the mountain in January, staring down the barrel of Aryna Sabalenka’s weapons-grade tennis and emerging with a stunning upset of the three-time major champion in one of the most memorable Australian Open women’s singles finals of this century. 

On Friday at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Keys will have to scale the heights once again. 

She’ll face the top seed and 2023 BNP Paribas Open runner-up for the seventh time in what is sure to be a riveting affair – we only have to look at a few of their previous meetings to make this deduction. 

There was the heartbreaking defeat that Keys suffered at the hands of Sabalenka at the US Open in 2023, a loss that left the American dejected, yet still hopeful. 

“Right now it sucks,” Keys said at the time, after the 0-6, 7-6(1), 7-6(5) loss. “But yeah, I just think being able to take this and turn it to a positive is really possible.” 

Fast forward 16 months and Keys would realize her lifelong dream in Melbourne, edging Sabalenka in epic fashion, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5, to claim her first maiden major title.

It was Sabalenka’s turn to rue missed opportunities after she failed at her attempt to become the first woman to complete an Australian Open three-peat since 1999. Sabalenka needed about a month to erase that difficult loss from her memory banks. 

“I'd say that the final in Australia was really heartbroken,” Sabalenka said after her second-round win over American McCartney Kessler in the desert. “It was very difficult to recover after that one… I was trying to understand. 

“I had to kind of step back and start everything over again.” 

Keys and Sabalenka will meet for the seventh time on Friday, with Sabalenka holding the 4-2 lifetime edge. 

Keys has dealt with all the pressure that comes with becoming a Grand Slam champion admirably at Indian Wells, reaching her maiden semifinal at Tennis Paradise, and stretching her career-best winning streak to 16 victories. 

The only way over the mountain for Keys will be to do what helped her scale the heights in the first place. 

“I think the reality of winning as many matches as I have this early in a season hasn't ever really happened for me, so I think there is definitely a lot of just kind of confidence from all those wins under your belt. 

“I think it kind of gives me the confidence to, in really tight situations, just continue to go for whatever I want to.”