In 2024 Tommy Paul was a mere four points from his first Masters 1000 final at the BNP Paribas Open. After opening up a 4-0 lead in 15 minutes on the former World No. 1 in last year’s second men’s singles semifinal on Stadium 1, Paul took the opening set and was still holding the upper hand in the second-set tiebreak, when disaster struck. 

Up 3-2 in said breaker, the American turned his left ankle after launching himself into the air to hit a forehand, and was never the same. Paul had his ankle strapped between sets and Daniil Medvedev pounced right at the start of the third to claim the victory, 1-6, 7-6(3), 6-2.

It was a narrow escape for Medvedev. 

“Tommy just showed everyone how to beat me, how to play on the lines, full power,” Medvedev said after the match. “He was playing pretty unbelievably, and I didn't know what to do, so the only thing I could do is try to continue to search for solutions.” 

Paul would exact a bit of revenge on his rival when he ended Medvedev’s title defense with a 6-1, 6-4 victory in the round of 16 two months later, at Rome. 

A nice feather in the cap, sure, but Paul probably feels he still has a bit of unfinished business, both against Medvedev on home soil, and in his career in general. 

The New Jersey native, a four-time ATP title winner, made his Top 10 debut on January 27th. Here in Tennis Paradise he comes in at No. 11, and he is far from satisfied, despite all the success he has had over the last few years. 

“I’m going back to work,” he said in an interview with Tennis Channel on Sunday after defeating former champion Cameron Norrie to reach the round of 16. “Just trying to get better, just trying to improve on everything a little bit, to try and move up the rankings even more.” 

Paul’s coach, Brad Stine, thinks that his charge is still very much at the beginning of a climb that he hopes will continue this week in Southern California. 

“There are still a lot of things within the sport that he hasn’t been able to accomplish yet,” Stine told BNPParibas.com of the man he has coached since 2020. “He won his first ATP 500 title last year, so check that off the list, but he hasn’t won a Masters 1000 – I think he’s capable of doing that.” 

Two-time BNP Paribas Open runner-up Medvedev, meanwhile, is angling to get his season back on track. He has yet to reach a final this year, and comes in ranked at No.6. 

The former World No. 1 says that he and Paul’s styles cancel one another out. All the more reason for fans to get excited about a grudge match that could turn into a war of attrition. 

Opportunity awaits the winner, as Paul and Medvedev are two of the three highest-ranked players in their half of the draw. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to find the winner of Tuesday’s headliner to take his place in Sunday’s final in the California Desert. 

“I definitely expect a great match,” Medvedev previewed. “He beat me in a good fashion in Rome, and here it was a crazy match at Indian Wells [last year]. I feel like our games connect in a way where I do think it’s tough to play each other. 

“It’s a tough matchup but I’m looking forward to it.”