[5] Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune [12], Three Key Stats: 

• Daniil Medvedev improved to 20-7 lifetime at Indian Wells with his three-set win over Arthur Fils. 

• Holger Rune has reached the semifinals at three of his last four Masters 1000 appearances. 

• Medvedev defeated Rune in the quarterfinals last year here, winning 7-5, 6-4. 

One can’t help but wonder what Medvedev’s BNP Paribas Open legacy would have been had it not been for the Spanish wunderkind Carlos Alcaraz. Two years in a row Medvedev, not necessarily well-suited to thrive in slow-playing desert conditions (he’ll be the first to tell you), defied the odds and powered into the final only to be toppled by the indefatigable Alcaraz in lopsided fashion. 

Medvedev has won 14 of 16 his last matches in the California desert, and seven of those wins have come against Top 20 players. If it weren’t for the two-time defending champion, might it be Medvedev going for the Indian Wells three-peat this weekend in Tennis Paradise? 

Instead, Medvedev continues his quest to get his name on the tournament’s honor roll alongside the greats of the game like Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and… Alcaraz. Next up, a semifinal matchup against talented Rune of Denmark on Saturday at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. 

Rune and Medvedev met in last year’s quarterfinals, with the two-time finalist coming through in straight sets, but the former World No. 1 is well aware of the fact that the 21-year-old Dane is a force to be reckoned with when he makes his way deep at tournaments. 

“His talent is really strong. I feel like he has every shot,” Medvedev said of the 12th-seeded Dane. 

Rune entered the Indian Wells fortnight with a 6-6 record on the season, but Medvedev believes that it’s a misleading ledger. He says that the Dane gets more dangerous with each passing win at the big events. 

“Probably he knows that sometimes he's not consistent in the beginning of tournaments, but when he's deep [in the draw], he's a tough player to beat,” Medvedev says. 

For the former World No. 4 the challenge is mental. He says it was his three-set victory over France’s Ugo Humbert in the third round that gave him clear indication of progress he has made in the composure department.

Rune rallied to take out the hard-serving lefty, 5-7, 6-4, 7-5, in an enthralling victory on Stadium 1 that showcased problem-solving skills, and set the tone for wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tallon Griekspoor in his next two rounds. 

“The match against Humbert was tough,” he said. “I really had to show my mindset and show my fighting spirit, because nothing was easy in that match.” 

Rune used the blueprint to rally from a set down against Griekspoor in the quarterfinals on Thursday. If this is what the new Holger Rune is going to play like, the Top 10 better beware.

“I was thinking back a little bit about the Humbert match,” Rune told reporters, adding: “I'm very happy that I managed to find the solution, because obviously Tallon had the lead against me.” 

Rune, who reunited with his childhood coach Lars Christensen at the end of last season, has been a player in possession of all the shots in the book ever since he exploded onto the scene and won his first Masters 1000 title in Paris in 2022. But his tennis has lacked an identity at times. 

“Good slice, good dropshot, good volley,” said Medvedev. “He can spin, he can play flat, he can serve well, he can kick well. I wonder if sometimes it disturbs him, because when you have that many arms, it might be tricky.” 

On Saturday, Rune will look to merge his talent with his focus, and produce a win for the ages. Medvedev, meanwhile, will look to keep pushing for a prize that has proven elusive. He’s played second fiddle to Alcaraz for two years, but this year he just might be third-time lucky.